If your security provider called you this month to say they can’t fill a post, you’re not alone. And if they asked for a rate increase in the same conversation, that wasn’t a coincidence either.
The security guard shortage that started building during the pandemic hasn’t eased. It’s gotten worse. Across the country, contract security companies are struggling to recruit and retain guards at every level, from unarmed lobby officers to armed patrol teams. In Memphis, the problem has its own local flavor, shaped by a labor market where FedEx, Amazon, and a half-dozen warehouse operations are pulling from the exact same pool of workers.
For property managers and business owners who rely on contract security, this is the year your staffing assumptions break.
The Numbers Behind the Squeeze
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported roughly 1.1 million security guards employed nationwide at the end of 2021, down from pre-pandemic levels. The industry needs to hire hundreds of thousands of workers per year just to keep up with turnover, which runs between 100% and 300% annually depending on the company and the market. That means a firm with 200 guards might need to hire 200 to 600 new people every year just to stay flat.
In Tennessee, the Department of Commerce and Insurance (TDCI) processes around 4,200 new guard registrations each year through its Private Protective Services division. That number hasn’t grown much, even as demand for guards has spiked. The math doesn’t work.
Allied Universal, the largest security company in North America with over 800,000 employees globally, has doubled its recruitment budget in the past year. Securitas, the second-largest, has been running signing bonuses in multiple markets. GardaWorld, the third major national player, has raised starting wages in cities across the South. All three operate in Memphis. All three are competing for the same candidates.
The smaller firms, the ones with 50 to 200 guards that handle a lot of Memphis’s commercial and residential security work, don’t have the recruitment budgets to match. They’re losing people to the nationals, and they’re losing people to industries that don’t require standing on your feet for 12 hours in a parking garage on Airways Boulevard.
FedEx Changed the Game
Memphis is a FedEx town. The company employs around 30,000 people in the metro area, making it the city’s largest private employer by a wide margin. The Memphis World Hub at the airport runs package sorts around the clock, and the operation needs a constant flow of workers.
In 2021, FedEx raised its minimum wage to $15 per hour for hub workers. Some positions pay $17 to $20 depending on the shift. The package comes with health insurance, tuition assistance, and retirement benefits. For someone weighing a security guard job at $12 an hour with no benefits against a FedEx hub position at $15 with full benefits, the decision isn’t complicated.
Amazon made a similar move. The company opened multiple fulfillment and distribution centers in the Memphis area over the past two years. Starting pay sits at $15 to $18 per hour. Dollar General’s distribution center in Olive Branch, just across the state line in Mississippi, has been hiring aggressively too.
The result is a wage floor that security companies never planned for. Two years ago, a Memphis security firm could fill an unarmed guard position at $10 to $12 an hour without much trouble. Today, $14 to $16 is the going rate for the same job, and even at that price, candidates are scarce.
“You can post a job at $14 an hour and get maybe three applications in a week,” one Memphis security company owner told me. “Two years ago, you’d get thirty.”
Who’s Getting Squeezed
The pain isn’t distributed evenly. Large national companies can absorb higher wages because they pass costs to clients on a lag. A property management company locked into a 24-month contract signed in 2020 is paying 2020 rates for 2022 labor costs. That gap is where the problems start.
When the contract comes up for renewal, the price increase can be 15% to 25%. Some clients push back. Some switch providers. Some cut hours, dropping overnight shifts or weekend coverage to stay within budget. Security company owners across the city describe the same pattern: clients want the same coverage at the old price, and the old price doesn’t buy a warm body anymore.
The armed guard market is tighter still. Tennessee requires armed security guards to complete additional training, pass a firearms qualification, and submit to a more extensive background check through TDCI. The pool of qualified armed guards is smaller to begin with, and the wage premium has grown. Armed guards in Memphis who were making $14 to $16 an hour in 2020 are now getting $18 to $22, depending on the client and the risk level.
For properties in higher-crime areas like Whitehaven, Hickory Hill, or parts of Frayser, the demand for armed security has gone up even as the supply has shrunk. Some companies are turning down contracts they would have taken two years ago simply because they can’t staff them.
The Turnover Trap
High turnover has always been the security industry’s defining weakness. A guard gets hired, works for three months, and leaves for a warehouse job or a different security company offering fifty cents more per hour. The hiring company eats the cost of recruiting, background checks, TDCI registration, and training, then starts over.
The real cost of replacing a security guard runs between $3,000 and $5,000 when you add up recruiting, screening, administrative processing, uniforms, and field training. At 100% turnover, a company with 100 guards is spending $300,000 to $500,000 a year just to stay at the same headcount. At 200% turnover, which several Memphis operators say they’re approaching, those numbers double.
The TDCI registration process itself adds friction. New guards need to submit fingerprints, pass a criminal background check, and receive a registration card before they can legally work. The process can take two to four weeks. During that gap, the new hire might take a different job. Some companies start guards on non-security tasks during the waiting period to keep them engaged, which is a workaround that adds cost and complexity.
What This Means for Memphis Businesses
If you’re a business owner or property manager in Shelby County contracting with a security company, here’s what you should expect in 2022.
Your contract renewal will cost more. Plan for a 15% to 25% increase, possibly higher if you’re in a market segment with high demand for armed guards. If your provider hasn’t raised rates yet, they will. If they don’t, ask yourself whether they’re cutting corners to hold the price. That often means less screening, less training, and higher turnover at your property.
Guard quality may slip. When companies are desperate to fill posts, hiring standards can drop. Ask your provider about their current rejection rate on applicants. A company that’s accepting 80% of applicants is probably letting people through who wouldn’t have passed screening a year ago.
You might see more no-shows. When guards have options, they’re more likely to skip shifts they don’t want. An overnight post at an industrial property on East Shelby Drive is a harder sell than a daytime lobby position in East Memphis. If your site isn’t attractive to guards, you’ll feel the shortage first.
Technology isn’t a quick fix, but it’s part of the conversation. Some Memphis companies are supplementing guard hours with camera systems, remote monitoring, and access control upgrades. The technology doesn’t replace a physical presence, and it doesn’t work for every site. Still, it can reduce the number of guard hours you need, which matters when those hours are expensive and hard to fill.
No Quick Solution
The security guard shortage has structural roots that won’t change in 2022. The labor market remains tight. Wages in competing industries keep climbing. The TDCI licensing pipeline produces a fixed number of new guards each year. And the fundamental economics of the industry, where margins are thin and contracts are competitive, make it hard for security companies to raise wages enough to close the gap with FedEx and Amazon.
Some firms are trying creative approaches. Signing bonuses of $500 to $1,000 have appeared at several Memphis companies. Referral bonuses for existing guards who recruit friends. Flexible scheduling to accommodate workers who have second jobs. These help at the margins.
The companies that survive this period will be the ones that figure out how to retain guards, not just recruit them. That means better pay, better treatment, and better working conditions. It also means honest conversations with clients about what security actually costs in 2022.
For Memphis property managers and business owners, the takeaway is simple. Security is more expensive than it was, and it’s going to stay that way. The sooner you adjust your budget and your expectations, the less likely you are to find yourself with an empty guard post at 2 a.m. on a Tuesday.
That phone call from your provider isn’t going to stop coming.